Mumbai Covid Cases: Mumbai’s active Covid cases below 40k, doctors say 2nd wave declining | Mumbai News

MUMBAI: The number of active Covid-19 cases in Maharashtra dropped below 40,000 on Wednesday, edging closer to the pre-second wave days of February.
“The second wave seems to have declined,” said state task force member Dr Shashank Joshi. Based on the snapshot of the 18 months of the pandemic in Maharashtra, experts such as Joshi expect the third wave, if it occurs at all, to peak in mid- to late-December.
On Wednesday, the daily Covid cases in the state rose to a seven-day high (3,608) even as the total active cases dropped to 39,984. Active cases were lowest this year on February 11 at 30,265.
Detailed data released by the state government on Wednesday showed active cases now are about a tenth of that (3.01 lakh) during the first wave’s peak on September 17, 2020. A state government doctor, however, pointed out that last year’s peak followed Ganpati visarjan on September 1, 2020. “If people don’t observe Covid-appropriate behavior right now and if a variant emerges, cases could start rising again,” he said.
According to the Covid graph so far, the lull in cases lasts for about three months. After the peak in September 2020, cases continued to drop till February 2021 before rising again. The second wave’s peak was on April 22, with 6.99 lakh active cases.
“We have noticed a roughly 100-day gap between the decline of the last wave and the peak of the second wave,” said Joshi. As the second wave has now declined, the next peak could emerge between December and January, he said.
Covid cases in Mumbai seem to have plateaued between 350 and 500, with 486 cases registered on Wednesday. Deaths rose to four after a single death registered on Tuesday. The daily positivity rate dropped to 1.2% as the number of tests again increased to 40,484.
The state weekly Covid report showed that Pune, Thane, Ahmednagar, Mumbai and Satara accounted for 70% of the cases. “The state health machinery is focused on conducting the ‘tracing, testing and treating’ strategy aggressively in these five districts,” said a state official.
The total caseload since March 2020 in Maharashtra stands at 65.3 lakh, including 7.4 lakh in Mumbai. The toll in the same period is 1.4 lakh, including 16,063 in Mumbai.

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